Madrid.- Fitch Ratings revisó la perspectiva de la calificación de la colocación privada (PP) de bonos por EUR470 millones de euros del Fútbol Club Barcelona (FCB) a negativa desde estable. Los bonos de PP fueron afirmados en ‘BBB-‘.
Fitch retiró simultáneamente la calificación por razones comerciales y ya no proporcionará una calificación o cobertura analítica de los bonos FCB PP.
FUNDAMENTO DE LA CALIFICACIÓN
La afirmación refleja acciones rápidas tomadas por el club para mitigar una contracción significativa en la rentabilidad durante 2020-2022. Las medidas son las pocas de las que dispone el club debido a su estructura de propiedad como asociación deportiva (Asociación Deportiva), que les impide realizar inyecciones de capital. La afirmación también reconoce la marca excepcionalmente fuerte del club a nivel mundial y la flexibilidad relacionada, que el club está aprovechando para restaurar la rentabilidad y recaudar efectivo.
La perspectiva negativa refleja el bajo rendimiento financiero del club en el año fiscal de junio de 2022 frente a nuestras expectativas, así como un desapalancamiento más lento de lo esperado en comparación con el caso de calificación de Fitch (FRC) el año pasado.
FCB ha recaudado recientemente alrededor de 600 millones de euros en transacciones extraordinarias que implican la venta de alrededor del 25% de los ingresos futuros de medios y derechos audiovisuales. Estos ayudaron al club a restaurar su patrimonio negativo y reclutar nuevos jugadores, en línea con los controles de gasto de La Liga (el organismo rector de la liga española de fútbol), al tiempo que afectaron la generación de ingresos futuros.
Una fracción de los ingresos, 125 millones de euros, se utilizó para el pago anticipado parcial de las notas del PP, de acuerdo con los prestamistas. La Gerencia no ha dado ninguna orientación específica sobre el uso de los fondos restantes. Por lo tanto, no anticipamos una mayor reducción de la deuda y no podemos descartar que las ganancias puedan usarse en última instancia para la adquisición de jugadores en el marco de la campaña de transferencia actual/futura.
A tres de agosto, el club se ha comprometido a una inversión neta en nuevos jugadores de 130 millones de euros.
La Perspectiva Negativa también refleja los riesgos asociados con la próxima remodelación del estadio, que obligará al club a mudarse temporalmente a un nuevo estadio más pequeño y reducir sustancialmente la capacidad del conocido estadio Camp Nou, hasta que se complete la remodelación. Además, un retraso en el cronograma de construcción podría conducir a ingresos inferiores a los esperados.
Está previsto que estas obras se financien sin recurso directo al FCB y vemos la reforma como algo positivo para el club. FCB ha confirmado que no será responsable de ningún sobrecosto en la construcción, pero Fitch señala que los detalles del contrato de construcción aún no se han finalizado.
Fitch ha optado por retirar los ratings del Fútbol Club Barcelona por motivos comerciales.
IMPULSORES DE CALIFICACIÓN CLAVE
Segunda liga más lucrativa del mundo – Riesgo de ingresos: Modelo de negocio de la liga – ‘Rango medio’
La Liga española es la segunda liga de fútbol más lucrativa del mundo después de la Premier League inglesa (EPL). Los derechos totales de televisión nacional e internacional aumentaron hasta unos 2.000 millones de euros anuales en la última licitación del nuevo ciclo 2021-2023 desde unos 1.400 millones de euros en el ciclo anterior de 2016-2019. El alto nivel de ingresos de transmisión contratados refleja el fuerte apoyo de los fanáticos y las empresas, incluso durante los años de estrés. La liga tiene un porcentaje de moderado a alto de ingresos compartidos entre los equipos que compiten.
Todavía espera Fitch que las regulaciones de juego limpio financiero de La Liga y la Uefa incentiven a la Gerencia a controlar los gastos salariales de manera más eficiente.
Club líder con marca fuerte – Riesgo de ingresos: Franquicia – ‘Más fuerte’
FCB se beneficia de una marca excepcionalmente fuerte, establecida en 1899 y habiendo ganado la UCL, el torneo de clubes más prestigioso del mundo, tres veces en los últimos 15 años. FCB también tiene una ventaja clave, especialmente en comparación con los mejores clubes de la EPL, ya que tiene una probabilidad muy alta de clasificarse constantemente para la UCL como resultado de su dominio en su liga nacional y en las cuatro posiciones de clasificación de la UCL disponibles en La Liga.
Fitch Revises FC Barcelona’s Outlook to Negative; Withdraws Rating
Madrid.- Fitch Ratings has revised Futbol Club Barcelona’s (FCB) EUR470 million private placement (PP) notes rating Outlook to Negative from Stable. The PP notes have been affirmed at ‘BBB-‘.
Fitch has simultaneously withdrawn the rating for commercial reasons and will no longer provide a rating or analytical coverage of FCB PP notes.
RATING RATIONALE
The affirmation reflects swift actions taken by the club to mitigate significant contraction in profitability during 2020-2022. The measures are the few ones available to the club due to its ownership structure as a sports association (Asociación Deportiva), which precludes them from equity injections. The affirmation also acknowledges the club’s exceptionally strong brand globally and related flexibility, which the club is tapping to restore profitability and raise cash.
The Negative Outlook reflects the club’s financial under-performance in financial year June 2022 versus our expectations, as well as slower-than-expected deleveraging compared with the Fitch rating case (FRC) last year.
FCB has recently raised around EUR600 million in extraordinary transactions involving the sale of around 25% of future media revenue and audio-visual rights. These helped the club restore its negative equity and recruit new players, in line with La Liga’s (the Spanish football league governing body) spending controls, while affecting future revenue generation.
A fraction of the proceeds – EUR125 million – were used for partial prepayment of the PP notes, in agreement with lenders. Management have not given any specific guidance on the use of the remaining proceeds. Therefore, we do not anticipate further debt reduction and cannot rule out that proceeds may ultimately be used for players acquisition under the current/future transfer campaign. As of 3 August, the club has committed to a net investment in new players of EUR130 million.
The Negative Outlook also reflects the risks associated with the upcoming stadium refurbishment, which will force the club to temporarily move to a new smaller stadium and materially reduce capacity of the well-known Camp Nou stadium, until the refurbishment is complete. Furthermore, a delay in construction schedule could lead to lower-than-expected revenue.
These works are expected to be financed without direct recourse to FCB and we see the refurbishment as positive for the club. FCB has confirmed that it will not be liable for any cost overrun on construction, but Fitch notes that the details of the construction contract are still to be finalised.
Fitch has chosen to withdraw the ratings of Futbol Club Barcelona for commercial reasons.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
La Liga Second Most Lucrative League – Revenue Risk: League Business Model – ‘Midrange’
Spain’s La Liga is the second-most lucrative football league in the world after the English Premier League (EPL). Total domestic and international TV rights increased to around EUR2,000 million per year in the last tender for the new cycle 2021-2023 from around EUR1,400 million in the previous cycle of 2016-2019. The high level of contracted broadcast revenue is reflective of strong fan and corporate support, including during stress years. The league has a moderate-to-high percentage of shared revenue across competing teams.
We still expect La Liga and UEFA financial fair-play regulations to incentivise management to control wage expenses more efficiently.
Leading Club with Strong Brand – Revenue Risk: Franchise – ‘Stronger’
FCB benefits from an exceptionally strong brand, having been established in 1899 and having won the UCL, the most prestigious club tournament worldwide, three times in the last 15 years. FCB also has a key advantage, especially compared with top clubs in the EPL, in that it has a very high likelihood of consistently qualifying for the UCL as a result of its dominance in its domestic league and in the four UCL qualification positions available in La Liga.
The club’s extensive history and strong performance on the pitch support a strong base of loyal fans, both domestic and globally. The club has been particularly dominant in its domestic league since the 2003-2004 season, having won La Liga 10 times and finished second five times, with only two third-place finishes. FCB has also competed in the UCL every season since 2004-2005 and only failed to qualify for UCL four times since the 1992-1993 season.
In recent years the club has shown a particular willingness to spend on costly transfers, leading to a significant increase in its wage-to-revenue ratio, which has been above that of many peers.
The club also benefits from high levels of contractual income in the form of broadcast and sponsorship revenue.
Stadium Remodelling – Facility Infrastructure Development/Renewal: ‘Midrange’
The stadium, Camp Nou, is historic, with original construction having been completed in 1957 and a current seating capacity of 99,354, making it the largest stadium in Europe. The stadium last underwent expansion in 1980 in advance of the 1982 FIFA World Cup and therefore requires extensive modernisation.
Management have developed a comprehensive capex plan covering significant remodelling works, and thereafter have a clearly defined maintenance schedule for the remodelled stadium. The works have now been confirmed to result in FCB playing games away from Camp Nou during the 2023-2024 season leading to reduced revenue for FCB during this period. Given that the stadium will have been newly remodelled, capex is expected to be moderate thereafter. The remodelled stadium will increase capacity to 105,000, add premium seating options, substantially increasing stadium revenue, and further enhance the fan experience.
Combination of Fully Amortising and Bullet Debt – Debt Structure: ‘Midrange’
The club’s debt mostly consists of EUR470 million partially amortising PP notes due in October 2031. The PP notes are senior-ranking and covenanted, although Fitch deems many of the covenants as fairly loose and ineffective.
The remaining debt is composed of EUR140 million floating-rate revolving facilities, and an EUR105 million drawn bridge loan whose proceeds have been used to fund the early works on the stadium and will be repaid with the debt raised for the stadium refurbishment.
Financial Profile
Under the updated FRC, projected net debt/EBITDA has a lumpy profile, falling to below 5.0x only in 2026, a delay of two years compared with our expectations last year.
PEER GROUP
FCB has one peer publicly rated by Fitch, which is Inter Media and Communication S.p.A. (Inter Media, B+/Stable). It is a media-rights securitisation of Inter Milan football club rated on a consolidated basis. Both clubs have similar assessments for league, franchise and infrastructure renewal. Despite the same ‘Stronger’ assessment for franchise, FCB has a much bigger fan base, significantly stronger revenue generation, and in our view, a stronger global brand.
Inter Media also has a weaker debt structure and higher leverage at below 6.5x from financial year to June 2023, compared with FCB’s below 5.0x by FY26. Differences in the clubs’ key rating driver assessments and leverage drive the rating difference.
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