Chicago/Bogotá/Nueva York.- Durante las elecciones legislativas y primarias de ayer, los candidatos de partidos alternativos y de izquierda ganaron más representación en el Congreso, y el exalcalde de Bogotá y candidato de izquierda Gustavo Petro recibió un fuerte apoyo, resaltó en su más reciente informe Fitch Ratings.
De acuerdo con la calificadora de riesgo, si es elegido, la plataforma de Petro podría incluir cambios significativos en la industria petrolera del país, la reforma agraria, un impuesto a la riqueza y la derogación de las leyes que liberalizaron el mercado laboral.
Las medidas más radicales de Petro se relacionan con el sector de petróleo y gas, que, si se promulgan, afectarían negativamente la calidad crediticia de Ecopetrol, Frontera Energy, Gran Tierra Energy y SierraCol Energy.
El país depende en gran medida del sector energético para los ingresos fiscales, así como para las fuentes de divisas e inversión extranjera directa. Por lo tanto, la agenda de reformas de Petro podría verse obstaculizada ya que los representantes de centro derecha y derecha representan aproximadamente el 55 % de la Cámara de Representantes (cámara baja) y el 64 % del Senado.
Es probable que las empresas colombianas enfrenten impuestos más altos y una mayor regulación si Petro es elegido en junio, a pesar de cierta oposición a estas medidas en el Congreso fragmentado.
Un grado de presión de flujo de efectivo de estas políticas probablemente no conduciría a muchas rebajas. Los refinanciamientos de deuda corporativa en 2020–2021 permitieron a los emisores extender los vencimientos aprovechando las tasas de interés más bajas. Como resultado, la concentración de la deuda a corto plazo es baja, del 6% de la deuda total, mientras que el flujo de efectivo operativo debería poder cubrir los gastos por intereses en una proporción de casi seis veces.
Colombian Corporates Positioned to Withstand 2022 Election Outcomes
Mon 14 Mar, 2022 – 17:48 ET
Fitch Ratings-Chicago/Bogota/New York-14 March 2022: Colombia corporate issuers are well positioned to withstand the political uncertainty of the country’s 2022 election cycle, as near-term debt maturities are low and operating cash flows are ample, Fitch Ratings says. During yesterday’s congressional and primary elections, left and alternative party candidates gained more representation in Congress, with former Bogotá Mayor and leftist candidate Gustavo Petro receiving strong support.
If elected, Petro’s platform could include significant changes to the country’s oil industry, land reform, a wealth tax and the repeal of laws that liberalized the labor market. Petro’s more radical measures relate to the oil and gas sector, and if enacted, would negatively impact the credit quality of Ecopetrol, Frontera Energy, Gran Tierra Energy, and SierraCol Energy. However, the country relies heavily on the energy sector for tax revenue as well as for sources of foreign exchange and foreign direct investment. Thus, Petro’s reform agenda could be hindered as representatives from the center right and right account for approximately 55% of the Camara de Representantes (lower chamber) and the 64% of the Senate.
Colombian corporates are likely to face higher taxes and increased regulation if Petro is elected in June despite some opposition to these measures in the fragmented Congress. A degree of cash flow pressure from these policies would not likely lead to many downgrades. Corporate debt refinancings in 2020–2021 allowed issuers to extend maturities by taking advantage of lower interest rates. As a result, short-term debt concentration is low at 6% of total debt, while operating cash flow should be able to cover interest expense by a ratio of nearly 6x.
Currently, 85% of the issuers with international ratings have a Stable Rating Outlook, while 10% of Rating Outlooks are Negative and 5% are Positive. Notable issuers with negative ratings outlooks are Empresas Públicas de Medellin BB+/Rating Watch Negative and Enel Colombia (before Emgensa) BBB/Rating Outlook Negative.
The Historic Pact, led by Petro and other center and left parties, achieved 13%, or 25, of the 187 representatives to the Camara de Representantes and 15%, or 16, of the 108-member Senate. Colombia’s two chambers of Congress remain highly fragmented despite gains made by the left, with no party holding a majority in either house, with representatives elected from more than 12 political parties.
Also nominated in their respective party’s coalitions were the center’s Sergio Fajardo and Federico Gutierrez for the right, joining right-wing candidate Rodolfo Hernandez and centrist Ingrid Betancourt, who did not participate in yesterday’s consultations. The right and center parties are each divided between two candidates. However, no candidate, including Petro, will likely be able to garner enough votes in the first round to win. Close to 11 million votes would be needed to be elected president in the first round, assuming the same voting percentage achieved in 2018 and an electoral census of 39 million.
Today’s political landscape is vastly different from the last election cycle in 2018 and is marked by economic impacts from the pandemic, higher levels of unemployment and broad social discontent. Conversely, in 2018, the country’s leadership on the right was headed by former President Alvaro Uribe, and the country was polarized by the approval of the peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas.
As a result, the country’s massive protests have impacted economic activity and pressured the government’s policy agenda. The right wing arrives to elections weakened, with no clear leader and high disapproval levels for President’s Ivan Duque administration. Nevertheless, given the fragmented political positions, a less polarized center candidate could emerge bringing together different political wings to defeat Gustavo Petro in the second round.